Dear valued client,
Markets started the week off strong, only to fall in the red today with worries of higher inflation in the future. More on that below.
President Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil and gas, as well as a separate 25% import tax on all cars not manufactured in the United States, aiming to boost domestic production. The Venezuelan oil tariff targets nations trading with Venezuela, while the car tariff builds on existing levies, potentially raising prices and straining U.S. auto industry supply chains linked to Canada and Mexico. Trump hinted at additional industry-specific tariffs, including pharmaceuticals, and possible reciprocal tariffs starting the same day, though exemptions and flexibility for certain countries remain under consideration. This ‘tariff strategy’ aims to bring business, manufacturing, and working-class jobs back to the United States. Time will tell whether or not this strategy achieves its intended aim and helps Trump’s approval ratings. The 2026 midterm elections will be here before we know it.
Following negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the White House announced on Thursday that Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, halting the use of force in the region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed Ukraine’s commitment to the deal but voiced doubts about Russia’s willingness to comply. The Kremlin stated that Russia will not implement the ceasefire until sanctions on its banks are lifted — a condition requiring European Union approval. President Trump suggested Russia might be intentionally delaying as a strategic move, and although the Black Sea agreement marks progress, talks for a broader ceasefire remain ongoing.
German software giant SAP surpassed Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk to become Europe’s most valuable public company, reaching a market value of €312 billion ($338 billion). SAP’s stock has surged 40% over the past year, driven by its shift from traditional licensed software to cloud-based subscription services and AI innovations, boosting Germany’s market in the process. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk, previously a contender for the top spot alongside luxury group LVMH, saw its stock drop 40% over the same period as investors question the sustainability of its success with weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, lacking a clear next-generation successor.
For the past week, tens of thousands of people have protested nightly in Istanbul following the arrest of their popular mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sparking Turkey’s largest demonstrations in over a decade. Imamoglu, who faces corruption charges widely condemned as politically motivated, was detained last Wednesday in a raid by dozens of police officers, with at least 1,100 protesters detained nationwide as unrest spread beyond Istanbul to conservative regions. Erdogan, who has tightened his grip on power over 22 years — purging dissent after a 2016 coup attempt — views Imamoglu as a significant threat due to his broad appeal and victories in Istanbul’s mayoral races in 2019 and beyond, positioning him as a frontrunner for the presidency. The arrest, timed just before Imamoglu’s expected nomination as the CHP opposition candidate for the 2028 election, has backfired, with 15 million supporting him in primaries and markets reacting harshly. So far there’s been a muted international response from the U.S. and Europe, preoccupied with their own geopolitical concerns.
Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved Parliament at the request of Liberal Leader Mark Carney, triggering a snap federal election set for April 28, just 36 days later — the shortest campaign period allowed under Canadian law. The election, pitting Carney against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, unfolds amid heightened tensions with the United States. Polls show a tight race as voters weigh which leader is best equipped to deal with Trump alongside lingering domestic concerns like housing and the cost of living.
“Leadership is not about the next election, it’s about the next generation.” – Simon Sinek
Have a great weekend,
PW
