Can We Predict Earthquakes?

Dear valued client,

Markets remained relatively even this week as attention was focused on humanitarian developments as opposed to economic or political stories. Investors are still digesting the most recent interest rate hike, as well as anticipating the January inflation figures set to be released early next week. 

Corporate earnings were well-received this week as the majority of companies reported better-than-expected bottom lines despite the high-interest-rate environment we are currently in. A number of companies stood out, including Uber whose sales jumped by 49%, and Disney which saw a 7.7% gain in revenues, totaling $23.51 billion. Disney also unveiled its restructuring plan; it will be divided into divisions: Disney Entertainment (media operations), ESPN, and a parks and products unit. Once implemented, the plan is said to save the company $5.5 billion in expenses. 

The biggest story this week was the back-to-back earthquakes that hit Syria (7.8 magnitude) and Turkey (7.5 magnitude). These were massive earthquakes, high up on the Richter Scale. As of today, roughly 25,000 people have lost their lives. Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan, has been scrutinized this week as he acknowledged his government’s slow initial response. A UN aid convoy and the World Bank have offered $1.78 billion in relief effort assistance. 

With all our modern technology, it begs the question… can we predict earthquakes? In short, no. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, scientists have failed to predict a single major earthquake. Statistical models can determine the probability of one happening in a specific region within a few years, but the models are useless for informing people on when they should evacuate their homes. Seismologists are attempting to harness technology to have more accurate predictions of the likely time and location of potential quakes. Progress, however, will likely be incremental. 

For you football fans, enjoy the Super Bowl Sunday evening. I hope the ads are worth their value; companies are paying $6 million / 30 seconds of airtime. That’s $200,000 per second…

“As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.”  – John F. Kennedy

Have a terrific weekend,

PW

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